Two things are happening to the UK accountancy market at the same time, and they’re pulling in opposite directions.
The first: the profession is shrinking. Our analysis of data shows the UK has lost 3,745 accountancy firms since 2019. That’s an 8.6% drop, with six straight years of decline. You can explore the full data study here.
The second: Making Tax Digital for Income Tax went live in April 2026, and it’s pulling roughly 2.6 million sole traders and landlords into quarterly digital reporting. Most of them have never needed regular professional support before. The evidence says a huge number of them aren’t remotely ready.
Falling supply.
Surging demand.
If you run an accountancy firm, you will not see a bigger structural opportunity than this in your career.
The MTD wave, phase by phase
The numbers are HMRC's own. The government's impact assessment expects around 780,000 people with business or property income over £50,000 to join from April 2026, with a further 970,000 joining from April 2027 when the threshold drops to £30,000. The Spring Statement then confirmed a £20,000 threshold from April 2028, sweeping in around 900,000 more.
Here's the part that makes it an opportunity: they aren't ready
Mandated demand only becomes business for accountants if the people affected need help. The research says they do, badly.
A survey of 1,000 sole traders by IPSE and Sage found that only 30% have a clear understanding of what MTD involves. Seven in ten either haven't heard of it or don't realise it means digital records and quarterly submissions. Many are still relying on methods that won't meet the rules: a third keep their books on pen and paper, and more than half track income through spreadsheets or bank statements. IPSE also found most respondents had received no direct information from HMRC at all.
Separate research from Wolters Kluwer paints the same picture: nearly half of affected taxpayers say they know very little about MTD, and one in five who know it affects them have taken no steps to prepare.
Now think about what MTD actually demands of these people. As MoneySavingExpert puts it, it's five submissions a year instead of one, through approved software, with a points-based penalty system for missed deadlines. These are plumbers, consultants, landlords with a couple of properties, freelancers who've always done one return in January. A large share of them will do what worried people always do: search for help.
The supply side makes this sharper
Remember the other half of the equation. There are 3,745 fewer firms to absorb this demand than there were in 2019, and the average UK firm's local market has already grown from 62 businesses per firm to 68 before MTD adds a single client.
When demand outstrips supply, firms get to choose their clients. The visible firms pick the best ones. Everyone else takes what's left, or nothing.
Get positioned before the 2027 wave
The £30,000 threshold in April 2027 is the big one: nearly a million more taxpayers, and the awareness research suggests most of them don't yet know it's coming. Firms that build their visibility this year will be established in the search results when that wave starts looking. Firms that wait will be starting from zero in a land grab.
If you want your firm in front of MTD clients before your competitors get there, get in touch. Rapport Digital works exclusively with accountants. In fact, our founder is one. We know exactly what this moment is worth.